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This is Scientific American 60-Second Science. I'm Christopher Intagliata. Got a minute?

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Today's early warning systems for earthquakes give you at most a few minutes to prepare for the hit.

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That's cause today's systems rely on detecting the first early rumbles of an actual earthquake before sending the alarm.

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Now researchers say that following the chemistry of groundwater could sound a long-term quake alarm.

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They tracked samples from an artesian well in Iceland for five years and identified changes in the ratios of hydrogen isotopes and a spike in sodium levels, four to six months before two 5+ magnitude quakes.

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The chemical clues suggest mixing between groundwaters,

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so the researchers deduce that rocks may be fracturing, linking up underground aquifers, before the quake.

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The results are in the journal Nature Geoscience.

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Investigations like this one have been plodding along for 40 years, and some studies, like one following the deadly Kobe quake in 1995 have found similar correlations.

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But study author Alasdair Skelton, a professor of geochemistry at Stockholm University, says the unpredictable study subject makes it tough to get funding,

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"because you can in no way guarantee a result.

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So I get three years of money but if there's no earthquake, there's no result."

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And even if we do accumulate more results like this and researchers sound a six-month alarm, what next?

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"If we're gonna ever predict earthquakes, we want something sort of intermediate term.

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Not years, and not minutes or days.

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So weeks or months is probably the most useful time scale,

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but the sheer practicality of it, what you do about it, I'm thankful I'm not the person who has to resolve that."

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Judging by the way leaders have responded to scientists' warnings about another issue (cough cough, climate change),

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we might still be left ducking under the nearest table.

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Thanks for the minute, for Scientific American 60-Second Science. I'm Christopher Intagliata.

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