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1 .This is Scientific American 60-Second Science. I'm Christopher Intagliata. Got a minute?
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2 .Today's early warning systems for earthquakes give you at most a few minutes to prepare for the hit.
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3 .That's cause today's systems rely on detecting the first early rumbles of an actual earthquake before sending the alarm.
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4 .Now researchers say that following the chemistry of groundwater could sound a long-term quake alarm.
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5 .They tracked samples from an artesian well in Iceland for five years and identified changes in the ratios of hydrogen isotopes and a spike in sodium levels, four to six months before two 5+ magnitude quakes.
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6 .The chemical clues suggest mixing between groundwaters,
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7 .so the researchers deduce that rocks may be fracturing, linking up underground aquifers, before the quake.
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8 .The results are in the journal Nature Geoscience.
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9 .Investigations like this one have been plodding along for 40 years, and some studies, like one following the deadly Kobe quake in 1995 have found similar correlations.
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10 .But study author Alasdair Skelton, a professor of geochemistry at Stockholm University, says the unpredictable study subject makes it tough to get funding,
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11 ."because you can in no way guarantee a result.
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12 .So I get three years of money but if there's no earthquake, there's no result."
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13 .And even if we do accumulate more results like this and researchers sound a six-month alarm, what next?
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14 ."If we're gonna ever predict earthquakes, we want something sort of intermediate term.
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15 .Not years, and not minutes or days.
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16 .So weeks or months is probably the most useful time scale,
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17 .but the sheer practicality of it, what you do about it, I'm thankful I'm not the person who has to resolve that."
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18 .Judging by the way leaders have responded to scientists' warnings about another issue (cough cough, climate change),
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19 .we might still be left ducking under the nearest table.
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20 .Thanks for the minute, for Scientific American 60-Second Science. I'm Christopher Intagliata.
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