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This is Scientific American 60-Second Science. I'm Christopher Intagliata. Got a minute?

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It's been a light year for tornadoes in the U.S., just a few dozen so far.

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By this time in 2011, a notoriously deadly tornado year, there had already been more than 120 twisters.

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So why the variability?

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Well, for decades, scientists have hypothesized that tornado frequency may be related to the fluctuation of sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific, known as El Ni?o and La Ni?a.

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But the link wasn't clear in the peak springtime tornado season.

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Because observations of tornadoes and hail tend to be most prevalent where people can see them, meaning the data isn't that comprehensive.

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So researchers took a step back, looking instead at the basic ingredients of tornadoes and hail: factors like wind shear, humidity and temperature.

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During La Ni?a, they indeed saw a boost in the conditions that breed springtime twisters and hail in the southeastern U.S.In El Ni?o years, they saw the opposite.

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The findings appear in the journal Nature Geoscience.

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Study author John Allen, a climatologist at the Earth Institute at Columbia University, says the data might be used to create yearly tornado forecasts, like this one:

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"So the forecast for this spring is a 60 percent chance of being around about normal, because we've got a relatively weak El Nino pattern, which tends to suppress a little bit.

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So we'd probably say that it's going to be at or below normal."

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Insurance companies or governments could use that data to gauge risk, he says！but no forecast can guarantee safety.

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"One tornado will still wreck a house.

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It will still end somebody's life, or destroy their life.

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And this is the thing to remember.

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We're saying there's a lower chance, but even in a quiet year we're still seeing about 800 tornadoes in the United States.

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And you know, if the right conditions match up, a tornado can form anywhere on this planet."

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Thanks for the minute, for Scientific American's 60-Second Science. I'm Christopher Intagliata.

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