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This is Scientific American 60-Second Earth. I'm David Biello. Your minute begins now.

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As Tesla prepares to begin selling its Model S in smog-ridden China, the question is: do electric cars reduce air pollution?

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And the answer is: it depends.

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That on-the-one-hand-yes-but-on-the-other hand-no conclusion comes from a study predicting the impacts of electric cars in the U.S.to 2050.

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It's in the journal Environmental Science and Technology.

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The reason it depends is that we don't know the future.

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Will batteries be cheap?

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Will the U.S.have a law limiting carbon dioxide?

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Which will cost less: oil or natural gas?

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Depending on the answers, electric vehicles and hybrids might not reduce air pollution at all.

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They could even make it worse.

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Researchers ran 108 different computer models of how driving might change in the next few decades.

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And it turns out the key to reducing air pollution isn't how many electric cars there are.

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What matters is whether there are regulations in place to mandate reductions in CO2 and other pollutants.

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As it stands, battery cars that run on electricity from burning coal can be more polluting than cars that get good mileage on gas.

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And that's why a Tesla in China, where most electricity comes from coal, is no zero-emissions vehicle.

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Your minute is up, for Scientific American 60-Second Earth. I'm David Biello.

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