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This is Scientific American 60-Second Earth. I'm David Biello.Your minute begins now.

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In more than a decade of reporting on climate change I can say one thing with absolute certainty.

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When it's cold outside, like during this recent polar vortex in the U.S., people start thinking this whole global warming thing must be overblown.

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The opposite is also true.

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Which is why the next summer of El Nino is going to do more for action to combat climate change than any activist or scientific study.

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Don't believe me?

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A new social science study in the journal Nature Climate Change backs my anecdotal experience.

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The report describes the so-called local warming effect.

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This effect is a result of people tending to rely on, "less relevant but available information… in place of more diagnostic but less accessible information."

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In other words, today's temperature matters a lot more to belief in the problem of global warming than any understanding of how climate change actually works.

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The social scientists ascribe such thinking to the fact that a cold spell or heat wave prompts memories of other similar weather events and thus makes one more or less likely to believe in global warming at that moment.

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And that means the recent bitter chill of the polar vortex wasn't unusual for prompting climate skepticism.

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What was really unusual was how many decades it had been since the last deep freeze in the 1990s and how quickly we forget.

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Your minute is up, for Scientific American 60-Second Earth. I'm David Biello,Thanks for listening.

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