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1 .This is Scientific American 60-Second Science. I'm Karen Hopkin. This'll just take a minute.
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2 .Imagine you're a soccer goalie.
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3 .Your opponent gets ready to take a penalty kick.
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4 .You're crouched in front of the net.
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5 .The past three kickers have aimed to your left.
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6 .So which way do you dive?
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7 .If you said "right," you'd be in good company.
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8 .Because when penalty shots repeatedly head in one direction, world-class goalkeepers are more likely to lunge the other way.
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9 .That's according to a study in the journal Current Biology.
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10 .This form of misconception¡ªthat a string of rights is bound to be broken by a left, is also common in casinos, so much so that it's called the "gambler's fallacy."
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11 .At the roulette wheel, for example, bettors tend to back black after seeing a run of reds.
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12 ."We're due for a black," the thinking goes.
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13 .But in reality, the roulette ball is still equally likely to land on either color.
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14 .And despite what netminders might think, the same is true for penalty kicks.
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15 .In fact, researchers studying 36 years' worth of World Cup and Euro Cup finals found that the direction of penalty shots is basically a coin-flip.
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16 .Ah, but if kickers in the next World Cup were to take advantage of the goalie falling for the gambler's fallacy, they could really get a leg up.
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17 .Thanks for the minute, for Scientific American 60-Second Science. I'm Karen Hopkin.
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