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1 .This is Scientific American 60-Second Science. I'm Christopher Intagliata. Got a minute?
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2 .Climate scientists forecast sea levels to rise anywhere from one to four feet by the end of the century.
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3 .That's a pretty big range.
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4 .And there's a good reason for that: there's a lot of uncertainty baked into climate models.
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5 .Take, for example, the way climate models predict how trees respond to drought.
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6 ."Drought in these models is treated as a light switch", either on or off,
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7 .¡°but in the real world we know that drought damages trees, and it can take a while for trees to repair this damage and recover."
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8 .William Anderegg, an ecologist at Princeton University.
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9 .He and his colleagues examined tree ring data from more than 1,300 sites around the world.
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10 .And by comparing the rings with known drought records they found that trees don't simply kick back into gear as soon as rains return.
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11 .Drought actually puts the trees' water transport systems under a huge amount of tension, he says, causing air bubbles to leak in, which damages or blocks those pipes.
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12 ."I often compare this to a sort of a heart attack for a tree.
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13 .That in some cases it can be lethal and in some cases they can repair that blockage."
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14 .That drought 'hangover' causes tree growth to lag five to ten percent below normal for several years following the dry spell.
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15 ."This is a problem because forests currently take up about 25 percent of human emissions of CO2, which is an incredible break on climate change.¡±
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16 .And the less CO2 the trees are able to take up, the warmer it gets.
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17 .The findings appears in the journal Science.
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18 .The thing this study makes clear, is that predicting climate change¡ is hard.
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19 ."It's really hard.These models have an incredibly challenging task of representing processes that occur from a leaf scale to a continent scale in space.
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20 .And from several seconds to hundreds of years or at least a hundred years in time."
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21 .But maybe a better understanding of how much carbon trees soak up,
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22 .and how much they don't, will make climate forecasting just a little bit easier.
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23 .Thanks for the minute, for Scientific American 60-Second Science. I'm Christopher Intagliata.
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